Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 19.733566 21.475016 23.401207 25.710228 28.431061 31.571945 35.527894
2024-10-20 16.880733 19.111289 21.758075 25.200200 29.671284 35.460978 43.864908
2024-10-27 15.617413 18.267593 21.605706 26.277817 32.947050 42.698753 59.454243
2024-11-03 14.226255 17.011794 20.668344 26.066600 34.354707 47.771954 74.811851
2024-11-10 13.247258 16.134703 20.059889 26.133008 36.107204 53.975188 97.065557
2024-11-17 12.498015 15.462077 19.615088 26.315798 38.037764 61.292490 130.338101
2024-11-24 11.863921 14.872148 19.197170 26.437203 39.857725 69.299968 180.546871
2024-12-01 11.231901 14.221067 18.604447 26.157373 40.834394 75.982549 246.671643
2024-12-08 10.752866 13.747856 18.226162 26.170595 42.386613 85.198808 379.270520
2024-12-15 10.279019 13.243586 17.745731 25.923573 43.319067 93.437996 611.736218
2024-12-22 9.853169 12.780440 17.286964 25.647451 44.118189 102.074141 1162.290100
2024-12-29 9.482930 12.377087 16.889726 25.430872 45.009848 112.117958 3619.439870
2025-01-05 9.148090 12.013587 16.538308 25.276599 46.085779 124.718699 NaN
2025-01-12 8.766890 11.557633 15.999710 24.689964 45.908673 131.721199 NaN
2025-01-19 8.678053 11.554432 16.228224 25.686900 50.400602 172.784200 NaN
2025-01-26 8.404781 11.241554 15.895136 25.464281 51.306579 194.251177 NaN
2025-02-02 8.193716 11.017588 15.702147 25.519401 53.122944 230.214203 NaN
2025-02-09 8.014335 10.835406 15.569838 25.691034 55.417654 283.875159 NaN
2025-02-16 7.839394 10.651454 15.420813 25.805816 57.600163 355.222319 NaN
2025-02-23 7.626058 10.394274 15.121047 25.536325 58.312459 414.155722 NaN
2025-03-02 7.461790 10.211714 14.948381 25.548665 60.155566 531.636799 NaN
2025-03-09 7.277017 9.987145 14.683943 25.311268 60.943450 649.112553 NaN
2025-03-16 7.099614 9.768341 14.418772 25.045942 61.559094 800.153846 NaN